The Impacts of Climate Change on Food Production: A 2020 Perspective
The
temperature of the planet would increase by, at least, 2.4ºCelsius (4.3º
Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, if the current business-as-usual path
is followed.
Under
the current distribution patterns, global food production would not be enough
to fully meet the food requirements of 7.8 billion people estimated to inhabit
the world in the next decade –about 900 million additional people.
By
2020, when considering the impacts of climate change and population growth,
global wheat production will experience a 14 percent deficit between production
and demand; global rice production an 11 percent deficit; and a 9 percent
deficit in maize (corn) production. Soybean is the only crop showing an
increase in global production, with an estimated 5 percent surplus.
This report was developed under
the following guiding principles:
- The analysis is based on the scientific evidence and conclusions
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth
Assessment Report (2007).
- The analysis uses the business-as-usual
path the world is currently following.
- The assessment of the impacts of climate change is based on a
short-term target. Thus, the selection of 2020 as the target year.
We believe that an increased
understanding would translate into actions that lead to the adoption of
concrete measures and appropriate policies towards a more sustainable and
equitable future.
The human cost of inaction,
otherwise, could be devastatingly expensive –not only for future generations,
but for this one.
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